Looking Into the Future

If you know me even a little, you know that I hold the website 538 in the absolute highest regard. Maybe it's because I've never been good at math so I'm easily convinced by statistics and models that I don't fully understand, maybe it's because the site predicts elections correctly the vast majority of the time, or maybe it's because I'm widely known as the Nate Silver of Oscar Predictions, so I feel a certain kinship.*

So when a journalist from 538 tweeted that Clinton would probably secure the nomination before the polls even closed in California, I had a vision of the future where people were complaining that she "stole the election" because they called if for her before the people of California even decided. This blog post is here to explain why that's not the case.

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It's a Bird, It's a Plane...

It's...Superdelegate! Faster than an electronic voting machine, more powerful than a group of Democrats in a caucus, able to leap over previous delegate counts in a single bound!

Much like Dear Abby, I answer the political questions that I am sent, and this week, I was sent the same question by three different people. After Hillary Clinton won enough superdelegates in New Hampshire to tie Bernie Sanders in the delegate count, people were abuzz, wondering what these superdelegates were and why they have so much power.

Let's clear up the biggest misconception first. Yes, superdelegates is one word, thank you very much spell check.

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Iowa and New Hampshire: Not That Important

New Hampshire has a rich history, beautiful natural scenery, and some of the best apple cider I have ever tasted. And I'm so incredibly lucky that I do not currently live there.

With primary season fast approaching, living in Iowa or New Hampshire must be like living inside of the CNN Situation Room. Candidates are ramping up their political ads, increasing the number of door-to-door canvassers who go out and try to convince voters, and probably calling every landline phone at all hours of the day. What makes these two states important enough to suck up the news cycle for months leading up to their primaries (or caucus, in the case of Iowa)?

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