Poll-er Opposites

We all knew this day would come. The day when I had to talk about polls. Believe me, I was dreading it as much as you were.

Before I go into everything that's wrong with election polling, and which polls you should and shouldn't trust, I'll say a few words about what's good about public opinion polls. In three recent major elections (2008, 2010 and 2012) the polls predicted election results fairly accurately. In this election season, public opinion polls were showing the rise of Trump before anyone in the mainstream thought of his candidacy as legitimate. The polls did something that even light of my life Nate Silver didn't do, and predicted that Donald Trump would win the Republican nomination.

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Iowa and New Hampshire: Not That Important

New Hampshire has a rich history, beautiful natural scenery, and some of the best apple cider I have ever tasted. And I'm so incredibly lucky that I do not currently live there.

With primary season fast approaching, living in Iowa or New Hampshire must be like living inside of the CNN Situation Room. Candidates are ramping up their political ads, increasing the number of door-to-door canvassers who go out and try to convince voters, and probably calling every landline phone at all hours of the day. What makes these two states important enough to suck up the news cycle for months leading up to their primaries (or caucus, in the case of Iowa)?

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